Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 07 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at
ACE continued to decline over the period from approximately 500 km/s
to 420 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 08 and 09 April. On 10 April,
quiet to active conditions are expected due to the effects of a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 088 Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 090/085/085 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 005/008-005/008-008/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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