Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 06 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 747 (S05W59) produced a
C1.0 flare at 06/0605 UTC and a C1.6 flare at 06/0636 UTC. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE
decreased from 600 km/s to 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 088 Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 06 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 030/048 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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