Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 05 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C1.1/SF flare occurred from
Region 747 (S05W47) at 05/2007 UTC. New Region 750 (S08E84) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to severe storm levels. Major
storm periods at middle latitudes with severe storm periods at
higher latitudes were observed between 05/0000 UTC and 05/0600 UTC.
At approximately 0200 UTC on 05 April, solar wind speed at ACE
increased from 560 km/s to 650 km/s while temperature, density, and
the IMF decreased. In addition, Bz remained southward for several
hours following this sudden change. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible on 06 April. On 07 and 08 April, quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected as the coronal hole high speed stream moves
out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 088 Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 011/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 022/050 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 012/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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