Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 31 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 090 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity remains at very low levels. Regions 747
(S07E23) and 748 (N09E59) are both HSX alpha spot groups that were
numbered today. Region 745 (N11W80) continues a slow decay and is
now spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 1 April.
Isolated minor storming conditions are expected late on 2 April due
to the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and
should continue through 3 April.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 077 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 008/010-015/015-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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