Viewing archive of Monday, 28 March 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 28 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low again today. Region 745 (N12W39), the only sunspot group on the visible disk, is in slow decay. A CME observed off the southeast limb at around 28/1900Z was likely backsided. No other significant activity was observed on the solar disk or limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The high speed coronal hole wind stream continues to subside. Solar wind speed ended the period at just under 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet with occasional unsettled periods over the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Mar 080
  Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        28 Mar 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  008/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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