Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 March 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 26 2250 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased slightly from approximately 680 km/s to 630 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 27 March. On 28 and 29 March, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected as the coronal hole high speed stream moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Mar 078
  Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        26 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  015/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Mar  012/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  010/015-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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