Viewing archive of Friday, 25 March 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 25 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 745 (N12E03) produced a C1/Sf flare at 24/2344Z. This region is in a slow growth phase with minor magnetic mixing. No other significant activity was observed on the solar disk or limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to very low. An isolated C-class flare is possible from Region 745.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. The most disturbed geomagnetic conditions followed short periods of southward IMF Bz to near -10 nT. A high speed coronal hole stream rotated into a geoeffective position over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed began the period at just over 400 km/s, but increased to near 700 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to active levels. Minor storm periods are possible at high latitudes on 26 March. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels with just isolated active periods are expected on 27 and 28 March as the high speed solar wind stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Mar 082
  Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        25 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Mar  010/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  012/020-010/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%35%30%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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