Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 24 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 25 March. On 26
March, isolated active conditions are expected as a recurrent high
speed stream moves into geoeffective position. On 27 March,
unsettled to active conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 087 Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 008/010-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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