Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 March 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 23 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 745 (N12E30) produced several low level B-class flares. New Region 746 (S11E07) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. A region that produced a backside CME on LASCO imagery at 21/1448Z is expected to rotate on the East limb sometime over the next few days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated active periods on 24 and 25 March. Activity is expected to increase slightly on 26 March as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moves into geoeffective position. Expect unsettled to active conditions on 26 March.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Mar 088
  Predicted    24 Mar-26 Mar  090/090/095
  90 Day Mean        23 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Mar  006/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  008/012-008/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%10%

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