Viewing archive of Monday, 21 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 21 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Newly numbered
Region 745 (N12E54) produced the only C-class flare recorded this
period, a C2 event that occurred at 20/1547 UTC. This active region
currently appears to be a simply structured magnetic BXO beta group.
Region 743 (S08W84) appears to be in decay as the spot cluster
begins to exit the solar west limb. Region 744 (S12W13) underwent
growth in the sunspot area and appeared fairly quiescent throughout
the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A weak coronal
hole high speed stream appears to have passed the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 21/0800 UTC with maximum solar wind speeds reaching
650 km/s at approximately 20/0900 UTC. Following two hours of a
sustained southward Bz, a brief geoeffective period of active
conditions occurred between 20/1200 and 1500 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. A solar
sector boundary crossing is expected to produce isolated active
conditions on 22 March. Isolated active conditions should persist
through 23 and 24 March due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 090 Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 085/080/080 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 006/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 006/012-008/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Latest news
Monday, 22 April 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
Saturday, 23 March 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
Wednesday, 20 March 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Latest forum messages
AR 3637, 3638, 3643 89Unproven theories 341Space Weather Memes 338Filaments and prominences 55Growth of Cycle 25 433
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/04/25 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/04/19 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 133.9 +26.6 |