Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 March 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels today. Old Region 742 (S06 L=160) which rotated off the west solar limb 19 March produced the largest flare of the period, a C4 x-ray event that occurred at 20/0159 UTC. Region 743 (S08W70) produced multiple B and C-class flares during the period. The largest was a C2 x-ray event that occurred at 20/1152 UTC. There was some decay in spot area today and the beta-gamma magnetic structure weakened but remains intact. Region 744 (S12E01) is a rapidly forming DSO beta group and was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods may be possible at higher latitudes on 22 and 23 March, due to a potentially geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
Class M10%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Mar 089
  Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar  085/080/080
  90 Day Mean        20 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Mar  004/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  004/008-004/012-006/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%02%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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