Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 19 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 743
(S08W57) produced two C-class flares during the period. The largest
was an impulsive C2/Sf flare that occurred at 19/0707 UTC. A Type
II radio sweep accompanied this flare and had an estimated shock
velocity of 413 km/s. SOHO/LASCO imagery did not depict any
significant CME activity near the time of the event. Region 743
continues to exhibit a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 742
(S06 L=160) rotated off the solar west limb today. No new regions
were numbered today
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. An
isolated period of minor storming occurred between 19/0000 and 0300
UTC. This was most likely due to a sustained southward Bz and a
slight increase in the solar wind speeds to approximately 460 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 093 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 005/008-004/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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