Viewing archive of Friday, 18 March 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 18 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region 743 (S08W44) produced the largest event of the period, a C1 x-ray event that occurred at 18/0235 UTC. A magnetic gamma structure has become apparent in the lead portion of the spot group. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Mar 096
  Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        18 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Mar  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  005/005-005/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm03%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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