Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 17 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Only B-class events
have been observed, mostly from Region 742 (S06W65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on 18 March. Quiet to unsettled is
expected on 19 March, decreasing to quiet on 20 March.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 101 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 010/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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