Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 15 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 741 (N10W80)
produced a C2 flare at 0647 UTC and is rotating off the limb.
Region 742 (S05W39) developed into a Beta-Gamma magnetic class
group, but has thus far only produced B-class x-ray flares. LASCO
imagery showed a CME off the SE limb at approximately 1548 UTC.
There is no obvious front side source for this CME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance of an M-class flare from Region 741 or 742.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed remains at nominal
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 16 March. Mostly unsettled
with a chance for active periods are expected on 17 March due to a
high speed stream from a coronal hole. Predominantly unsettled
should resume on 18 March.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 108 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 012/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 008/010-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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