Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 March 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 15 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 741 (N10W80) produced a C2 flare at 0647 UTC and is rotating off the limb. Region 742 (S05W39) developed into a Beta-Gamma magnetic class group, but has thus far only produced B-class x-ray flares. LASCO imagery showed a CME off the SE limb at approximately 1548 UTC. There is no obvious front side source for this CME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance of an M-class flare from Region 741 or 742.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed remains at nominal levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 16 March. Mostly unsettled with a chance for active periods are expected on 17 March due to a high speed stream from a coronal hole. Predominantly unsettled should resume on 18 March.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
Class M 10%10%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Mar 108
  Predicted    16 Mar-18 Mar  105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        15 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  012/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Mar  005/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  008/010-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%20%
Minor storm 05%20%15%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%20%
Minor storm 15%20%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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