Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 13 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Regions 741 (N12W57) and
742 (S05W12) both produced minor C-class flares during the period.
Region 742 continues to grow and was observed at 340 millionths in
white light. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days. Active conditions
are possible 14-15 March from the minor effects of a small
geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 114 Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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