Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 March 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 13 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Regions 741 (N12W57) and 742 (S05W12) both produced minor C-class flares during the period. Region 742 continues to grow and was observed at 340 millionths in white light. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days. Active conditions are possible 14-15 March from the minor effects of a small geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Mar 114
  Predicted    14 Mar-16 Mar  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        13 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Mar  003/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm 25%25%20%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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