Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 12 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 741 (N12W41)
produced a C1.7 flare at 0906 UTC. This region also experienced
significant decrease in size, although it increased in magnetic
complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Some possibility remains that Region 741 or 742
(S06E03) may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days. A small coronal hole
may produce elevated solar wind speeds on 14-15 March leading to
possible unsettled to active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 110 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 003/005-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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