Viewing archive of Friday, 11 March 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 11 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 741 (N12W26) produced a C1.2 flare at 0051 UTC. Region 743 (S07E50) continues steady growth with an alpha magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Regions 741 and 742 (S05E17) may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 12-13 March, with possible active conditions on 14 March as a small coronal hole moves into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Mar 105
  Predicted    12 Mar-14 Mar  110/115/120
  90 Day Mean        11 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  010/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Mar  005/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm 10%15%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm 20%20%25%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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