Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 10 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 741 (N13W11)
produced a C7.3 flare at 1142 UTC. No significant development was
observed from active regions on the visible disk, and no new regions
were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 741 and 742 (S05E31) may produce isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater
than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at
high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days. Active conditions
are possible late on 13 March due to the arrival of a recurrent high
speed solar wind stream as a small coronal hole rotates into
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 102 Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 110/110/115 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 013/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 008/010-005/010-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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