Viewing archive of Monday, 7 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 07 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 742 (S05E67)
was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly active with minor and major storm
periods. Heightened activity was due to the presence of a
geoeffective high speed stream that began early on 06 March. Solar
wind speed at ACE remained elevated between 600 km/s and 700 km/s.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a possibility for periods of
minor storm levels on 08 March. On 09 March, conditions are
expected to be unsettled to active. On 10 March, conditions are
expected to be mostly unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 087 Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 090/095/100 90 Day Mean 07 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 017/036 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 023/045 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 015/025-012/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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