Viewing archive of Monday, 21 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 735
(S09W71) was limited to minor B-class flares today. This region
underwent little change and retains the beta-gamma magnetic
classification. Region 736 (N13W63) showed an increase in penumbral
coverage over the past 24 hours and produced several minor B-class
flares. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Both Region 735 and 736 have the potential
of producing isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. High latitudes may
experience isolated active conditions with the influence of a
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream beginning late on 23
February.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 095 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 095/090/085 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 007/010-007/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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