Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 February 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. An M3 x-ray flare occurred at 19/1101Z from just beyond the solar west limb. The source of this flare appears to be from the vicinity of Region 732 (N08 L=188) which rotated out of view early yesterday. Region 735 (S09W45) underwent a slight decay in overall sunspot coverage today while the southern most penumbral mass had a noticeable increase in area. Magnetic analysis indicates Region 735 has the characteristics of a beta-gamma class group. The remaining active regions were quiescent today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 735 has the potential of producing isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels today. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is the most likely source for the active conditions. The solar wind speeds have ranged from 550 km/s down to 450 km/s throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Feb 099
  Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        19 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  014/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Feb  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  008/010-005/005-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%25%
Minor storm05%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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