Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 February 2005
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity increased to moderate levels. An M3
x-ray flare occurred at 19/1101Z from just beyond the solar west
limb. The source of this flare appears to be from the vicinity of
Region 732 (N08 L=188) which rotated out of view early yesterday.
Region 735 (S09W45) underwent a slight decay in overall sunspot
coverage today while the southern most penumbral mass had a
noticeable increase in area. Magnetic analysis indicates Region 735
has the characteristics of a beta-gamma class group. The remaining
active regions were quiescent today. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 735 has the potential of producing isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels today. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is the most likely source
for the active conditions. The solar wind speeds have ranged from
550 km/s down to 450 km/s throughout the period. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 099 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 014/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 008/010-005/005-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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