Viewing archive of Friday, 18 February 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 732 (N15W90) and 735 (S09W32) were responsible for several low level C-class flares. Region 732 produced the largest C-flare; a C2.3 at 17/2344Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 735 is still capable of producing C-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Activity was due to the effects of a high speed stream from a geoeffective coronal hole. Solar wind speed at ACE showed an increase to approximately 600 km/s by 18/1600Z and then decreased slightly to 550 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with the possibility of isolated minor storm levels on 19 February due to the arrival of the CME observed on LASCO imagery on 17 February. Expect quiet to active conditions on 20 February and quiet to unsettled conditions on 21 February.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Feb 104
  Predicted    19 Feb-21 Feb  100/100/095
  90 Day Mean        18 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Feb  017/027
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  015/030-012/015-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm 30%15%10%
Major-severe storm 15%10%01%

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