Viewing archive of Monday, 14 February 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity continued low. Region 734 (S05E04) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 0408UTC. Region 733 (S09W13) generated a C1 x-ray flare with Type II at 1158UTC. Although quiet, Region 735 (S08E20) grew in white light, now measuring over 400 millionths. The remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was high again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. A slow, faint CME was seen by LASCO midway through 13 February, associated with a flare from Region 733. Should that CME affect the magnetosphere, it is not anticipated to be significant, late in the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Feb 118
  Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        14 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Feb  003/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  005/008-005/010-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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