Viewing archive of Monday, 14 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity continued low. Region 734 (S05E04)
produced a C1 x-ray flare at 0408UTC. Region 733 (S09W13) generated
a C1 x-ray flare with Type II at 1158UTC. Although quiet, Region 735
(S08E20) grew in white light, now measuring over 400 millionths. The
remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at GOES was high again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A slow, faint CME was seen by
LASCO midway through 13 February, associated with a flare from
Region 733. Should that CME affect the magnetosphere, it is not
anticipated to be significant, late in the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 118 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 003/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 005/008-005/010-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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