Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 February 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 733 (S09E01) generated the day's largest event, a C2 x-ray flare at 1040UTC with associated Type II sweep. At this time there is no indication of a CME. Region 734 (S04E17) had the other C-class flare, a C1/Sf at 1458UTC. Region 733 is the most dynamic of the five regions currently visible. The remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet and unimpressive.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 733 may produce additional C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Feb 116
  Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        13 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Feb  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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