Viewing archive of Friday, 11 February 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. A C1.0 flare occurred from Region 734 (S04E44) at 11/1000Z. LASCO imagery showed a CME off the SE limb at 11/0254Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE showed a decline from approximately 680 km/s to 620 km/s during the reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 12 - 14 February. Today's CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Feb 114
  Predicted    12 Feb-14 Feb  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        11 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  011/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Feb  008/011
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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