Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 February 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C1.7 flare occurred from Region 734 (S04E57) at 10/0010Z. New Region 735 (S08E74) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE showed a decline from approximately 750 km/s to 650 km/s during the reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 11 February. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 12 and 13 February as the coronal hole stream moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Feb 114
  Predicted    11 Feb-13 Feb  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        10 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  014/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Feb  010/016
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  008/012-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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