Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 February 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 732 (N14E28) produced a C1.2 flare at 08/2144Z. New Region 734 (S04E71) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated minor storm period between O600Z and 0900Z. This elevated activity was due to persistence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE fluctuated around 700 to 750 km/s throughout the period. Bz was oscillating between +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to active levels with a slight chance for isolated minor storm periods.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Feb 109
  Predicted    10 Feb-12 Feb  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        09 Feb 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  027/034
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Feb  016/025
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  010/015-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 20%15%15%
Major-severe storm 10%10%10%

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