Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 February 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was a C3.7 flare from Region 733 (S08E67) at 07/2244Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. The heightened activity was due to the effects of a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has been elevated at approximately 700 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods possible due to the continued effects of a high speed coronal hole stream throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Feb 108
  Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        08 Feb 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  019/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Feb  018/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  012/020-010/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%

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