Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 February 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Multiple C-class flares occurred from a source on the east limb near N14, the largest was a C7 x-ray event that occurred at 04/2357Z. This is likely the return of old Region 720 (N13, L=178). LASCO imagery depicts two distinct CME eruptions from the solar east limb which do not appear to be Earth directed. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels throughout the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first day (6 Feb). Predominantly active conditions with periods of minor storming are possible on 7-8 February due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
Class M40%45%50%
Class X05%10%10%
Proton01%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Feb 095
  Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb  105/115/125
  90 Day Mean        05 Feb 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Feb  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  008/010-015/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%35%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%45%35%
Minor storm05%25%15%
Major-severe storm01%15%05%

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