Viewing archive of Monday, 31 January 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 729 (S10E18), a new region numbered today, produced a C1.3 at 31/1052 UTC. Other regions did not exhbit significant development. An apparent backsided CME was observed on LASCO imagery beginning at 31/0918 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Regions 727 (S09W53) and 729 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active from the continuing influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at a high level.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 1 February from the residual effects of elevated solar wind speed. Activity should subside to quiet to unsettled levels on 2-3 February.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jan 086
  Predicted    01 Feb-03 Feb  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        31 Jan 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  010/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jan  015/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  012/020-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm 20%20%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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