Viewing archive of Friday, 28 January 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 727 (S05W16) has been in steady decay for the last few days. Otherwise, no significant development was observed from the active regions on the visible disk, and no new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be influenced by increasing solar wind speed throughout the next three days as a coronal hole moves into geoeffective position. Quiet to active conditions are expected 29-31 January, with isolated minor storming possible 29-30 January.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jan 085
  Predicted    29 Jan-31 Jan  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        28 Jan 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jan  005/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  018/030-016/020-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 20%15%10%
Major-severe storm 10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm 30%25%20%
Major-severe storm 20%15%10%

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