Viewing archive of Friday, 28 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 727 (S05W16)
has been in steady decay for the last few days. Otherwise, no
significant development was observed from the active regions on the
visible disk, and no new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be influenced by increasing solar wind speed throughout
the next three days as a coronal hole moves into geoeffective
position. Quiet to active conditions are expected 29-31 January,
with isolated minor storming possible 29-30 January.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 085 Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 018/030-016/020-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
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