Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 January 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 727 (S09W02) continues to trend towards a slow and steady decay. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 28 January. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected to become geoeffective on 29 January with minor to major storming possible. Periods of active to minor storm levels are possible on 30 January from the continued effects of the anticipated high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jan 087
  Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan  085/090/090
  90 Day Mean        27 Jan 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  000/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jan  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  004/015-018/030-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%30%
Minor storm01%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%15%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm10%40%20%
Major-severe storm05%20%15%

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