Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 January 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N14W56) produced an X1/2n flare at 19/0822 UTC. This flare was similar to previous major flares in this region with strong radio output and a CME directed mostly to the northwest. Further decay in the region has occurred, although it remains fairly large and magnetically complex.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 720 retains the potential for another major event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic disturbance remained in progress at the active to severe storm level. The greater than 100 MeV proton event has ended: start 17/1215 UTC, 28 pfu peak at 17/1700 UTC, and end 18/2205 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress but is decaying: start 16/0210 UTC and 5040 pfu peak at 17/1750 UTC. Proton fluxes have decreased enough for the GOES electron sensors and ACE SWEPAM instruments to again provide reliable data. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at active to severe storm levels. Storm intensity is expected to taper off over the next 48 hours, as is the 10 MeV proton event, barring another significant solar event in Region 720.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
Class M 90%90%90%
Class X 30%30%30%
Proton99%90%80%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jan 133
  Predicted    20 Jan-22 Jan  130/120/110
  90 Day Mean        19 Jan 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  035/072
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jan  050/080
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  040/050-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm 60%50%30%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%20%40%
Minor storm 70%60%50%
Major-severe storm 25%20%10%

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