Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 January 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N13W15) produced several flares throughout the day. The largest was an X2/3B at 15/2302 UTC. This flare was associated with significant radio output that included 6400 sfu at 2695 MHz and type II/IV radio sweeps. There was also an asymmetric full halo CME associated with this event. The region remains large and magnetically complex, showing little structural changes since this major flare. New Regions 721 (S03E14) and 722 (N19E04) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high to very high. Region 720 appears capable of additional major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A proton event at greater than 10 MeV began at 16/0210 UTC in response to the X2 flare mentioned in Part IA and remains in progress. Peak flux observed so far was 312 pfu at 16/1935 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to major to severe storm levels within the next several hours with the arrival of the first of at least two expected CMEs generated over the past few days by Region 720. The proton event is expected to continue in progress.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
Class M 80%80%80%
Class X 30%30%30%
Proton99%80%75%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jan 145
  Predicted    17 Jan-19 Jan  150/155/160
  90 Day Mean        16 Jan 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  011/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jan  015/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  050/060-030/030-030/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%30%
Minor storm 30%20%20%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 50%50%30%
Major-severe storm 15%10%10%

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