Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 January 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Large Region 720 (N13W03) produced three major flares this period, beginning with an X1/1b flare at 15/0043Z. There was no CME associated with this X-class flare. An impulsive M8 flare was observed at 15/0431Z, and at 15/0638Z, the region produced the most significant event of the period, a long duration M8 flare. This event had associated intense radio emission including a 160,000 sfu burst on 410 MHz and moderate to strong centimetric bursts including a 3000 sfu Tenflare. Type II (1300 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were also observed, and the energetic protons (>10 MeV) began to rise soon after the flare maximum. SOHO/LASCO imagery revealed a fast full halo coronal mass ejection. Region 720 is a large and magnetically complex sunspot group with white light area coverage exceeding 1600 millionths. Strong shear along an extended east-west inversion line in this region was the focal point for the major flare activity. Region 718 (S07W21) produced an M3 flare at 15/1423Z with an associated 420 sfu Tenflare and CME off the southwest limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels. Region 720 has potential for M and X-class flares. An isolated M-class flare is also possible from Region 718.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm periods with isolated major storm levels at high latitudes. A gradual rise in the solar wind speed began early in the period, rising to a peak speed near 700 km/s, before gradually declining to near 550 km/s. The IMF Bz was predominantly southward during the first half of the period, which accounted for the most disturbed conditions. A greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement began soon after today's long duration M8 flare. The protons did not exceed the 10 pfu threshold, and remain elevated. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to severe storm levels. Solar wind remains elevated at near 500 Km/s which may produce isolated active periods early on 16 January. A CME associated with today's long duration M8 flare is expected to impact the geomagnetic field late on 16 January into 17 January. Major to severe storm periods are possible during this disturbance. Barring another Earth-directed CME, the geomagnetic field will likely return to unsettled levels with isolated active periods on 18 January.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
Class M85%85%85%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jan 145
  Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan  145/150/150
  90 Day Mean        15 Jan 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jan  015/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  035/040-050/060-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%50%30%
Minor storm25%30%10%
Major-severe storm15%20%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%40%
Minor storm30%35%20%
Major-severe storm20%25%10%

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