Viewing archive of Friday, 14 January 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 720 (N13E10) produced an M1.8/Sf flare at 14/1411Z and an M1.5 flare at 14/1757Z. Region 718 (S05W06) produced an M1.0 flare at 14/1606Z. Region 720 has increased in area to 1540 millionths and is a beta delta magnetic class. Region 718 has also increased in area to 250 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 720 is capable of producing multiple M-class events and possibly an X-class event. Region 718 has also shown the capability of producing M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods due to prolonged periods of southward Bz. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased to approximately 560 km/s during the reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M 85%85%85%
Class X 25%25%25%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 130
  Predicted    15 Jan-17 Jan  135/135/140
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  010/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  008/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  005/008-005/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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