Viewing archive of Friday, 14 January 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 720 (N13E10) produced an M1.8/Sf flare at 14/1411Z and an M1.5 flare at 14/1757Z. Region 718 (S05W06) produced an M1.0 flare at 14/1606Z. Region 720 has increased in area to 1540 millionths and is a beta delta magnetic class. Region 718 has also increased in area to 250 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 720 is capable of producing multiple M-class events and possibly an X-class event. Region 718 has also shown the capability of producing M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods due to prolonged periods of southward Bz. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased to approximately 560 km/s during the reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M85%85%85%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 130
  Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  135/135/140
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  010/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  005/008-005/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

23%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/23X1.1
Last M-flare2024/03/28M7.0
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/25Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2024124.7 +1.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12024M7.0
22001M6.17
32000M4.46
42022M4.0
52014M3.79
ApG
1200144G2
2200327G2
3199721G2
4201727G1
5200421G1
*since 1994

Social networks