Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 January 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C1.1 flare occurred at 11/2329Z from Region 718 (S07E19). Region 718 and 720 (N13E37) have exhibited significant growth in both area and number of spots. Region 720 increased its area from 50 millionths to 420 millionths since the last reporting period. However, both regions still maintain a beta magnetic structure and have been relatively quiet so far.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity. Region 720 is the most likely source for an M-class flare due to it continual growth.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm levels. Minor storm levels occurred due to the onset of a geoeffective coronal hole. Solar wind speed has increased from approximately 400 km/s to 700 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm levels possible on 13 January. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 14 January while quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 15 January as the high speed stream diminishes.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
Class M 30%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jan 102
  Predicted    13 Jan-15 Jan  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        12 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jan  015/030
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  010/020-010/015-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm 10%10%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm 20%15%10%
Major-severe storm 10%05%01%

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