Viewing archive of Monday, 10 January 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 719 (S08E55) remains a two-spot beta magnetic configuration, with several minor plage fluctuations. Region 718 (S07E46) continues to show no notable activity. Region 720 (N09E69) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 719 continues to have a fair chance for flare activity, but poses little threat for greater than an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. Interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind have both been relatively steady for the last 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. No significant disturbance anticipated for 11 Jan, but a large coronal hole is moving into geoeffective position for 12 and 13 Jan. Most of the high-speed solar wind stream will be above Earth's orbit, and should only provide a slight potential for active to isolated minor storming levels.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jan 090
  Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  085/090/090
  90 Day Mean        10 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jan  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  005/008-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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