Viewing archive of Monday, 3 January 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 715 (N04W04) produced a C3.8/Sf at 0422 UTC. Region 715 has maintained its size and magnetic complexity. No other significant activity was observed, and no new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 715 may produce C-class and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm conditions. Solar wind speed reported yesterday at 800 km/s has settled to around 650 km/s, still strong enough to produce the isolated minor storming observed today. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor storming possible on 4 January from the residual effects of the coronal hole still in geoeffective position. Activity should subside to quiet to unsettled levels on 5-6 January.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
Class M25%20%20%
Class X05%05%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jan 094
  Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan  095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        03 Jan 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  020/033
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jan  020/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  015/020-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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