Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity remained at moderate levels today.
Region 715 (N04E48) produced the largest flare of the period, an
M2/Sf x-ray event that occurred at 30/1047Z along with an associated
Tenflare (230 sfu) and a spectral Type II radio sweep that had an
estimated shock velocity of 653 km/s. LASCO imagery depicts a
resulting CME that appears to have a weak Earth directed component.
The strong delta structure remains intact and some growth in
penumbral coverage was observed during the period. Region 716
(S16E52) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 715 remains magnetically complex
enough to produce isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels today. The
elevated periods are most likely due to a waning high speed coronal
hole stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels on 31 Dec
and 1 Jan. A glancing blow from the CME that resulted from M2/Sf
flare that occurred today could produce periods of active to minor
storm conditions beginning on 2 Jan.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 100 Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 008/010-008/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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