Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 December 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels today. Region 715 (N04E61) produced the largest flare of the period, an M2 x-ray flare that occurred at 29/1627Z. An associated Tenflare (510 sfu) and a spectral Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 411 km/s. This flare also produced a CME that does appear to be Earth directed. Several lesser C-class flares were also reported from this region during the period. The large asymmetrical sunspot contains both polarities and appears to be magnetically complex. Region 713 (S09W91) produced an M1 x-ray flare that occurred at 29/1920Z. Multiple lesser C-class flares originated from this region and the sunspot cluster was in a growth phase as the spot group transited the solar west limb. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 715 is capable of producing isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated conditions were most likely the result of the geoeffective transequatorial high speed coronal hole stream that had a mean radial speed today of approximately 430km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period. Isolated active conditions early on the first day (30 Dec) of the period are possible as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
Class M60%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Dec 099
  Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan  100/100/105
  90 Day Mean        29 Dec 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  012/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Dec  018/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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