Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 December 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels today. The plage field in Region 713 (S09W78) showed a significant increase in coverage along with the production of multiple C-class flares today, the largest was a C7/1f event that occurred at 28/0010Z. An increase in the sunspot area and an increase in the magnetic complexity were observed this period. Region 715 (N04E74) began to rotate into view and was numbered today. It is already exhibiting a large asymmetrical sunspot. This region was responsible for the C7/Sf event that occurred at 28/1801Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. An isolated active period was observed between 28/1800 and 2100Z, likely due to a sustained southward Bz which was observed by the ACE spacecraft.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
Class M15%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Dec 105
  Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        28 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Dec  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  005/008-006/008-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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