Viewing archive of Friday, 24 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C1, long duration
x-ray flare occurred at 0356UTC from a spotless area in the
southeast quadrant. Both spotted regions, 713 (S08W21) and 714
(S03W30), were quiet and stable. A lengthy filament disappeared from
the northwest quadrant early in the day.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist
at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to mildly active. A recurrent
high-speed solar wind stream is due in the next 24-36 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 097 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 010/010-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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