Viewing archive of Friday, 24 December 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A single C1, long duration x-ray flare occurred at 0356UTC from a spotless area in the southeast quadrant. Both spotted regions, 713 (S08W21) and 714 (S03W30), were quiet and stable. A lengthy filament disappeared from the northwest quadrant early in the day.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to mildly active. A recurrent high-speed solar wind stream is due in the next 24-36 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Dec 097
  Predicted    25 Dec-27 Dec  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        24 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Dec  004/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  010/010-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm 10%15%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%40%40%
Minor storm 10%20%20%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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