Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 22 2350 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 713 (S10E07) produced a
C2/Sf event at 22/2025 UTC. This region has went relatively
unchanged and retains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A new
region was numbered today as Region 714 (S04W01).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm conditions. The ACE
solar wind data suggest the possible influence of a high speed solar
wind stream. In the past 24 hours the solar wind velocity has
steadily increased from around 400 km/s to above 550 km/s with
southward fluctuating Bz, and low density.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated periods of active
conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 099 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 006/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 012/015-010/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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