Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 December 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 713 (S10E46) produced a single C1 flare at 19/0414Z. A faint CME off the southeast limb was likely associated with this flare, but is not expected to be geoeffective. Region 712 (S11E24), the only other spot group on the visible disk, was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 713.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed was in gradual decline and finished the period near 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible on 22 December.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Dec 094
  Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec  095/100/100
  90 Day Mean        19 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Dec  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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