Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 December 2004

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Two CME's were observed on LASCO imagery, one at 18/0936Z and the other at 18/1024Z. These CME's were most likely farside events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a small chance for C-class flares from Regions 712 (S10E37) and 713 (S10E59).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor storming at high latitudes. Active to minor storm periods due to the continued influence of a geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately 640 km/s to 530 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Dec 091
  Predicted    19 Dec-21 Dec  090/095/100
  90 Day Mean        18 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  009/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Dec  008/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  006/010-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%

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