Viewing archive of Friday, 17 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 710 (S07W72) has
shown a slight increase in area and spot number, but remains quiet.
New regions 712 (S10E50) and 713 (S10E70) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from the new
regions near the southeast limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with a period of
minor storming between 17/0300Z and 17/0600Z. The active to minor
storm levels were due to the continued influence of a geoeffective
coronal hole high speed stream. There was an increase in the solar
wind speed at ACE from approximately 550 km/s to 650 km/s during the
reporting period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with minor storm periods possible at
high latitudes on 18 December. Expect quiet to unsettled with
isolated active conditions on 19 December as the high speed coronal
hole stream subsides. Expect quiet to unsettled levels on 20
December.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 090 Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 014/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 008/015-006/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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