Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels again today.
Region 711 (N13W74) underwent a slight decay in sunspot area during
the period while the weak gamma magnetic structure remained intact.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 15 December. Active
conditions may occur beginning late on 16 December and continuing
through 17 December due to a recurrent geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 089 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 090/085/085 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 005/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 005/005-010/012-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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