Viewing archive of Monday, 13 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 711
(N13W60) showed slight growth in sunspot area and there appears to
be a weak gamma structure in the trailing portion of the sunspot
cluster. Multiple low level B-class flares were attributed to
Region 711, the only spotted region on the visible disk. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels. Region 711 has a slight chance of producing an
isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated
conditions were a result of the observed full halo CME on 8
December. This activity began tapering off early in the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 14 and 15 December.
Active conditions may be experienced due to the anticipated return
of a weak recurrent coronal hole on 16 December.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 090 Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 024/036 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/008-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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